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Pavel Chtcheprov

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Lung Cancer Risk Predictor

This tool is designed to predict the six year risk of developing lung cancer and is intended to aid patients or clinicians in determining eligibility for lung cancer screening with yearly low dose CT scans (LDCT).

-Determine your (or your patient’s) 6 year risk of lung cancer

-Determine if you (or your patient) are eligible for lung cancer screening

-Visualize the impact smoking is having on your risk of lung cancer

-Provide information and tools for quitting smoking, seeing if lung cancer screening is right for you, and identifying where to go for lung cancer screening.

FOR PATIENTS:

Use this tool to see what your risk of lung cancer is and to see the impact continued smoking will have on your risk of lung cancer in the future. Included in this tool are important links to learn more about quitting smoking, lung cancer screening, and to identify lung cancer screening programs that are accredited by the American College of Radiology (ACR).

FOR PROVIDERS:

The rate of lung cancer screening among eligible patients in only 1.9% nationally. The Tamegagi scoring criteria used in this application is an accepted method of identifying patients for lung cancer screening and has been shown to be superior in sensitivity while maintaining specificity as compared with the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) enrollment criteria. Use this tool with patients to identify if your patient is eligible for lung cancer screening and to show them the impact smoking is having on their risk of lung cancer.

What is lung cancer and why is lung cancer screening important?

Lung cancer is a cancer that develops in the parenchyma or airways of the lungs and is most commonly related to smoking, which is the biggest risk factor for this disease. Lung cancer is difficult to identify early due to a lack of specific symptoms, and therefore typically presents at an advanced stage where cure is more difficult and sometimes not possible. Recently, two major studies have been able to show an improvement in survival for patients that are at high risk of developing lung cancer and are screened with an annual low dose computed tomography (LDCT) scan.

For this reason, in 2015 the US Preventative Task Force (USPTF) endorsed a recommendation for annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. This rating was given a “B” grade which indicates with high certainty that there is a moderate net benefit to screening, which is the same grade given to mammography for breast cancer.

Several groups, including Tammemagi et al and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), have suggested that today’s screening guidelines may be missing patients who are at risk due to other factors than smoking history and age, such as comorbidities like COPD or idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, family history of lung cancer, or certain higher risk minorities. In fact, Tammemagi scoring was found to have improved sensitivity of 83% over the 71% of USPSTF while maintaining specificity of approximately 63%. Therefore, it is clear that there are patients who would benefit from LDCT screening that are currently not being screened and that additional information may be necessary to be collected to further refine lung cancer screening.

This application aims to empower patients and providers to determine eligibility for lung cancer screening based on Tammemagi scoring criteria by dramatically simplifying the calculation and showing via a large evidence base the impact added smoking is having on the risk of lung cancer.

Assisted by Dr. Mark Waddle, Mayo Clinic
MarkRWaddle@gmail.com

Graphics by Kelly Chtcheprov


Lung Cancer Risk Predictor

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